North East of Scotland has less than five years to secure a
positive energy future
by Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director, Energy Transition Institute, Robert Gordon University
July 2026
The global energy industry is facing an unprecedented combination of economic,
geopolitical and industrial pressures. While the pace of that change remains uncertain,
one conclusion from our latest analysis at Robert Gordon University (RGU)’s Energy
Transition Institute is clear – the next five years will determine whether the North East of
Scotland strengthens its position as a global energy hub or sees decades of capability
gradually erode.
Our latest report, Delivering Positive Energy, in collaboration with Scottish Enterprise,
examines a range of offshore energy workforce scenarios for the North East of Scotland,
based on RGU’s UK Striking the Balance report (2025). Without intervention, the oil and
gas workforce across the UK is expected to decline by between 600 and 800 people a
month (direct and indirect jobs). Including induced jobs in the wider economy, the
impact is closer to 1,000 per month (OEUK 2025).
For the North East of Scotland, with around a third of the UK oil and gas workforce, this
means between 200 and 270 oil and gas job loss a month on average. The issue is not
whether decline happens. It is whether we move fast enough and make interventions to
keep the skills, companies, and capabilities in the region.
The report identifies a transition ‘Goldilocks Zone’, the period between now and the early
2030s when declining employment in oil and gas must be matched by growth in
renewables. Managing that transition successfully is essential if the North East of
Scotland is to retain the skills, supply chain and infrastructure needed to compete in
future offshore energy markets.
Under current investment assumptions, growth in regional renewable activities will not
fully offset those losses. Unless new regional projects are delivered more quickly,
existing regional offshore activity continues for longer, or the regional economy
diversifies more rapidly, the gap will widen.
Workforce capability can’t simply be recreated when demand returns. More than 90% of
offshore oil and gas skills are transferable to renewable energy. However, if experienced
people leave the sector, much of that regional knowledge will leave with them.
The timing is particularly important. Around 70% of ScotWind lease areas are located
within 100 nautical miles of the North East of Scotland. Similarly, the UK is among five
countries expected to deliver most of the 300 GW European 2050 offshore wind target.
Meeting that ambition would require the construction and installation of close to 17,000
new 15 MW turbines (equivalent to 700 every year, or two every day) over the next 25
years. These projects and associated infrastructure present a major industrial
opportunity, but only if the workforce, supply chain and regional ecosystem remain in
place.
The economic case is equally compelling. Around one in six people in the North East of
Scotland are employed directly or indirectly in offshore energy. With regional offshore
energy salaries significantly above the regional average income, replacing the economic
value of each North East of Scotland offshore energy job would require up to two new
jobs elsewhere in the regional economy.
The sector contributes £18.4 billion GVA to Scotland’s economy despite the region
accounting for only 9% of the Scottish population. Losing that capability would have
consequences well beyond the North East of Scotland’s energy industry.
As Delivering Positive Energy highlights, the North East of Scotland combines advantages
that few regions can match. The region offers competitive housing, affordable
commercial property, a globally recognised energy cluster, a mature innovation
ecosystem, and one of the UK’s most highly qualified workforces. These strengths
provide the basis to manage the transition, attract investment, grow new industries, and
retain high-value jobs.
The challenge, therefore, is not choosing between today’s industries and tomorrow’s. It
is maintaining the capability long enough for the transition to happen at scale. That will
require coordinated action from governments, industry, and the investment community.
The opportunity is real, but so is the risk. The decisions taken over the next five years will
determine whether the North East of Scotland remains a globally competitive multi
energy powerhouse or enters a period of long-term industrial decline.
Energy Voice – North East of Scotland has less than five years to secure a positive energy future – 7th July 2026
